United States | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

After growing the most since 2015 in the second quarter of 2017, we expect the US economy to slow down in Q3 due to effects of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The expansion is likely to gain speed in Q4, as rebuilding activity takes place, and continue throughout 2018. Consumer spending will continue to benefit from employment gains, stronger wage growth and expected personal tax cuts. Also, corporate income taxes are likely to bring further improvement in investment activity and growing external demand and abetting effects of dollar appreciation should boost exports. Lastly, as inflation remains close to its 2 percent target and labour situation continues to improve, the Fed funds rate is projected to rise gradually. This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.7 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -48731.00 -46700 -50000 -49300 -50500 -59000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 108 108 108 109 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 93.68 95.03 95.97 96.91 97.85 108 [+]
Stock Market 24651.74 22500 22300 22100 21800 19300 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.37 2.41 2.44 2.46 2.49 2.75 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.7 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18569.10 19200 19800 19800 19800 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17169.73 17270 17350 17490 17600 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 17345.32 17438 17525 17596 17654 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2915.57 2925 2926 2923 2915 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 52194.90 52800 53500 53500 53500 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50 53060 53220 53220 53220 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 174.50 150 151 152 152 156 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 818.60 810 803 794 783 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2218.60 2205 2200 2195 2190 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 321.20 208 349 346 343 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2457.50 2488 2501 2513 2524 2567 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 13259.70 13600 13429 13491 13543 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 588.20 594 595 595 594 583 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 296.60 271 287 286 286 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 228.00 160 190 170 145 170 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 7.00 13 13.63 13.59 13.59 11 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 221.00 153 147 140 134 114 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 31.00 10 9.57 11.62 -8.14 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 225.00 242 254 264 273 328 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1886.00 1978 2008 2036 2064 2277 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 190.00 164 174 158 144 150 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 153918.00 154004 153920 153884 153854 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 6610.00 6362 6267 6301 6386 7247 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.26 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.38 34.38 34.37 34.37 34.34 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 63.08 63.08 63.09 63.1 63.19 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.2 1.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.60 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 10.2 percent [+]
Productivity 108.87 109 109 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 108.36 109 109 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6263.00 6281 6133 5981 5836 4914 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5996.00 6042 5987 5934 5883 5484 Thousand [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 35038.00 41467 48298 53186 56704 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 22.24 22.52 22.79 22.87 23.35 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 21.10 21.32 21.64 21.76 21.87 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 3.22 3.45 3.66 3.86 4.03 4.89 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.62 0.66 0.71 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.50 2 1.7 0.9 -0.2 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 326 328 328 328 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00 2028 1907 1847 1786 1807 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4290.00 4131 4070 4039 4008 4064 USD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 60.10 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.4 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 2240.00 2191 2166 2154 2142 2167 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1540.00 1465 1478 1485 1492 1470 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27110.00 27328 27326 27318 27310 27235 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 126827.00 127095 127285 127350 127354 127011 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 247.59 248 249 249 250 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 253.72 254 255 256 257 261 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.8 1.9 2 2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 113.62 115 115 115 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 114.40 114 115 116 118 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.10 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.85 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 124.60 125 125 125 125 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 124.90 124 124 123 123 120 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.40 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.9 percent [+]
Core Pce Price Index 113.62 114 114 115 115 120 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 253.18 254 254 254 254 253 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 204.01 203 205 206 206 204 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 113.25 114 114 114 114 121 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.61 2.51 2.64 2.68 2.71 2.82 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.61 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3907715.00 3860232 3850425 3843807 3837624 3782638 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3617.70 3585 3601 3610 3614 3603 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13785.40 13824 13930 14016 14085 14296 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 122632.00 123561 122992 122390 121791 116736 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4396552.00 4407379 4395578 4383924 4372336 4270852 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16709900.00 16294075 16292840 16291606 16290371 16279174 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2119.37 2150 2169 2184 2195 2194 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 199.60 199 199 198 198 195 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -22100.00 11797 10992 10873 10786 10552 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -48731.00 -46700 -50000 -49300 -50500 -59000 USD Million [+]
Exports 195907.00 194300 195000 196200 196500 200000 USD Million [+]
Imports 244639.00 241000 245000 245500 247000 259000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -123137.00 -117000 -118200 -118000 -120923 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -7934901.00 -7777101 -7658935 -7549856 -7459765 -6701967 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.14 101 101 101 101 102 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 151200.00 17188 17201 18807 20223 22576 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 46199.00 41576 41172 42108 41918 39710 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 23242.00 42227 32688 30782 29515 24755 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8134 8135 8135 8135 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9481.00 9180 9183 9167 9151 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.43 5.16 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.36 [+]
Tourism Revenues 20828.00 20663 20617 20571 20525 20128 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6507601.00 5427600 5258600 5113700 4989500 4429100 [+]
Weapons Sales 9894.00 9406 9412 9417 9423 9994 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 108 108 108 109 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -2.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -7.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -138547.00 -25887 -32640 -35006 -34134 -27804 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2897.99 2896 2895 2895 2893 2879 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 208374.00 294206 267609 252370 245459 212175 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 20590392.00 20710866 20973594 21115483 21189664 21206340 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 346922.00 336518 330000 327411 325904 319851 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 11947 11892 11836 11780 11305 Persons [+]
Military Expenditure 606232.60 651485 702472 703459 589945 771394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 31.14 31.23 31.32 31.41 35 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 58.20 55 54 54.3 52 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.00 53 52.7 52.9 53.67 53 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.40 58 55.2 56 54 55.06 [+]
Services PMI 52.40 53.7 52.9 53 54.6 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 53.00 54 52.4 52.7 55 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.40 3 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.40 2 1.7 1.7 2 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.10 76 76.4 76.6 76.68 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -1.20 -1.2 0.39 0.33 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.80 0.82 0.43 0.33 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.40 0.1 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.80 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 479590.00 476076 474328 472768 471246 458450 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.10 -0.5 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.10 -0.8 0.39 0.2 0.32 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 39.01 65.2 14 7.5 19.5 75 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.50 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 23109.00 24372 25248 26281 27410 37180 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1738.60 1714 1727 1729 1725 1704 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107.50 106 104 100 102 97 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 22.70 19 15 10 13 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 30.00 14 15 11 10 3 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 58.10 54.39 54.83 55.11 55.28 55.53 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.00 25 19 12 11 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 19.40 14 15 14.5 12.42 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.65 0.05 0.2 0.2 -0.09 0.05 [+]
Chicago Pmi 63.90 54 53 53.5 57.95 54.53 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.48 14 18 18 17.19 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 2.80 3.61 3.89 3.89 3.31 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 513.74 569 615 645 662 683 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -5.12 -0.5 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -69.00 -23.25 -7.84 -2.19 -0.11 1.09 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 5664.00 612 200 201 -500 500 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 183.53 184 186 187 188 195 Index Points [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 129552017 129483682 129416277 129348765 128896096 IP [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 751.00 749 748 748 747 741 [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -7.38 -1.96 0.17 0.27 0.28 0.28 BBL/1Million [+]
Steel Production 6976.00 6470 7111 7208 7261 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.85 5.7 5.73 5.73 5.77 5.86 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 3 3 3 2 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 18 16 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 7 6 6 6 6 [+]
Mining Production 9.40 2 7 6.4 3.21 1 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 96.80 94 94 94.5 93 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.2 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.80 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 4 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1.00 0.4 0.36 0.4 0.35 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11921.14 11985 12052 12111 12167 12524 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14513.30 14408 14407 14405 14403 14384 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.30 0.4 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.6 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 percent [+]
Personal Savings 3.20 3.56 3.6 3.73 3.84 4.67 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 20.50 13.35 11.68 10.43 9.63 7.94 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9463.65 9480 9535 9562 9575 9554 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.25 4.15 4.15 4.25 4.6 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 51.90 50.55 50.31 50.12 49.97 49.55 [+]
Redbook Index 3.30 3.81 3.15 2.8 2.59 2.32 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 4131.00 5966 6343 6464 6503 6529 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.63 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.20 80 80.2 80.3 77.14 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 1316.00 1141 1313 1315 1316 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1290.00 1160 1100 1090 1170 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 685.00 570 610 560 666 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -0.60 3 -0.6 0.5 0.66 1.2 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5480.00 5300 5220 5190 5200 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 1.40 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.30 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 70.00 62 60 61 59 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.20 4.22 4.26 4.31 4.36 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -2.30 0.46 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 203.50 197 198 199 204 211 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.90 63.72 63.74 63.75 63.77 63.88 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.63 13.62 13.61 13.6 13.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature -1.00 -1.04 1.34 15.29 12.76 -0.07 celsius [+]
Precipitation 75.00 55.46 55.46 55.48 55.48 55.47 mm [+]