United Kingdom | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

UK GDP growth is expected to slow further in 2018 as public spending cuts and Brexit-related uncertainty weigh on the economy. Still, the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its equilibrium rate of around 4.5 percent in the near term although wage growth is likely to remain low, resulting in falling real wages. Inflation is forecast to fall towards the Bank of England's 2 percent target over the next year, easing the squeeze on households' finances, and house price inflation is seen to average just over 3 percent. In addition, business investment and exports are likely to be supported by the pickup in global growth. Interest rates are set to rise slowly. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1405.00 -2600 -2500 -2000 -1900 -400 GBP Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 86.5 86.5 86.5 81.9 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.33 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.11 [+]
Stock Market 7490.57 7440 7370 7290 7220 6390 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.15 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.62 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 percent [+]
GDP 2618.89 2820 3050 3050 3050 3290 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 488907.00 490960 492820 494800 496400 512230 GBP Million [+]
Gross National Product 495902.00 502360 506570 509600 511400 529390 GBP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 81375.00 80110 80210 80420 80670 82940 GBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 41602.98 42060 42600 42600 42600 43870 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38901.05 39740 40200 40200 40200 41100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2645.00 3250 3270 3290 3310 3650 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 27221.00 26790 26820 26860 27120 29300 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 43776.00 42830 43050 43260 43540 44700 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 5148.00 7610 7650 7690 7720 7990 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 19608.00 21170 21420 21650 21780 23400 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Services 348562.00 341900 342800 343600 344200 374500 GBP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 18989.00 18370 18450 18560 18640 19900 GBP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 30904.00 31200 31450 31500 31750 32800 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 817.50 808 810 811 812 829 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8539.00 8620 8670 8700 8730 8960 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 23540.00 23590 23610 23640 23660 23990 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 75.10 75.6 75.7 75.6 75.5 74.6 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 5.90 12 16 11 9 6 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 78.50 79 79.2 79.4 79.6 82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.00 11.5 11.4 11.2 11 11.9 percent [+]
Labour Costs 104.90 105 105 105 106 110 Index Points [+]
Productivity 100.80 104 105 105 106 110 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 798.00 783 784 785 786 792 Thousand [+]
Wages 510.00 508 510 512 514 532 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 2.50 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.8 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 595.00 589 591 593 595 614 GBP/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.83 7.83 8.5 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 65.81 65.81 66.29 66.29 66.29 67.16 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.50 63.5 64 64 64 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 66 [+]
Living Wage Family 1280.00 1240 1290 1290 1290 1520 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 970.00 1120 1170 1170 1170 1470 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.00 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 Hours [+]
Employment Change 0.00 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1330.00 1300 1310 1310 1310 1550 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2210.00 2290 2310 2310 2310 2490 GBP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.60 109 111 114 116 134 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.60 109 111 114 116 132 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.90 109 111 113 115 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.70 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.20 111 113 115 117 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.00 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 112.80 94 95 93 94 95 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 110.80 102 103 104 104 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.10 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.90 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 111.60 114 116 118 120 134 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 102.90 108 110 112 114 126 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 105.30 109 111 113 115 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.52 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 82561.00 91700 93200 95600 97500 122400 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1696944.00 1830200 1865000 1889000 1955000 2510800 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2342853.00 2383900 2455000 2510700 2562000 3129100 GBP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2803793.00 2884500 2947000 2999800 3063000 3420000 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 152867.84 162000 164000 168000 172000 205000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3876286.00 3910000 3970000 4050000 4110000 4510000 GBP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 564094.00 555000 560000 565000 570000 600200 GBP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2370133.00 2400000 2420000 2440000 2509822 2720000 GBP Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.75 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 230.51 232 234 234 234 230 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1405.00 -2600 -2500 -2000 -1900 -400 GBP Million [+]
Exports 53669.00 50200 50600 51200 51500 55700 GBP Million [+]
Imports 55074.00 52800 53100 53200 53400 56100 GBP Million [+]
Current Account -23182.00 -27230 -21210 -14640 -17500 -22840 GBP Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -1.5 percent [+]
External Debt 6138780.00 6245000 6322000 6383000 6452000 6811000 GBP Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.80 97.5 98.2 98.4 98.6 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 11099.00 42100 12100 15400 17900 36900 GBP Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7430.00 14900 44100 26300 -700 15900 GBP Million [+]
Gold Reserves 310.29 310 310 310 310 310 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 941.00 950 950 950 950 880 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 5.10 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 5.08 [+]
Tourism Revenues 2800.00 2080 1400 2100 2500 2490 GBP Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3940.00 2760 2680 3460 3340 2990 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 1393.00 1369 1398 1427 1456 1533 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.30 87 86.5 86.5 86.5 81.9 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -981.00 9230 19700 21600 15980 9980 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending 92127.00 93050 93300 93660 93800 95590 GBP Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.10 43.4 43.6 43.6 43.6 44.3 percent [+]
Government Debt -7464.00 -6540 -3250 -3970 -7850 -5460 GBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 54216.80 54619 54819 55020 55220 56750 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2835.00 2910 3070 3040 3070 2210 persons [+]
Government Revenues 58491.00 55510 57020 55960 53400 61870 GBP Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence -11.00 4 7 6 5 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 58.20 56.6 57.2 56.9 56.6 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 53.80 52.8 52.6 52.4 52 54.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.60 1.2 1.5 2 1.8 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.90 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 84.70 82.6 82.6 82.7 82.7 82.7 percent [+]
New Orders 16699.00 14880 14970 15000 15290 16480 GBP Million [+]
Factory Orders 17.00 2 4 6 5 -2 Net Balance [+]
Changes in Inventories -1244.00 -256 -66.07 -379 -252 97.15 GBP Million [+]
Bankruptcies 4152.00 3400 3610 3580 3500 4000 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 108691.00 111000 112000 113000 114000 121000 GBP Million [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -42.90 -36 -28 -12 1 12 [+]
Car Production 157056.00 121000 161500 159400 162000 132000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 163541.00 187000 565000 261000 471000 196000 Cars [+]
Small Business Sentiment -4.00 5 5 4 6 2 [+]
Internet Speed 16920.86 18009 18157 18290 18321 16984 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 27493519.00 27436601 27386372 27271585 27191528 26436613 IP [+]
Private Investment 0.20 -0.3 0.6 0.7 1 0.5 percent [+]
Mining Production 14.00 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2 percent [+]
Steel Production 702.00 680 670 630 620 850 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.51 5.49 5.54 5.54 5.47 5.59 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 7 6 6 6 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.90 53.6 53.9 54 53.8 52.8 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 83 83 83 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 8 8 8 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6 6 6 6 5 [+]
Electricity Production 24007.00 29900 26800 24900 26000 30200 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.00 -10 -9 -7 -4 2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.10 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.60 2 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 324595.00 314000 315000 316000 317000 323000 GBP Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 330546.00 296200 302500 312600 317100 364400 GBP Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.90 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 7.9 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 87.20 88 88.5 88.5 88.5 82 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 126.42 128 130 130 130 132 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1451.00 1480 1570 1650 1770 2430 GBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.63 1.55 1.52 1.5 1.49 1.6 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Starts 42480.00 36210 41050 43110 41740 44750 [+]
Construction Output -0.20 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.8 percent [+]
Housing Index 734.10 742 751 763 774 890 Index Points [+]
Mortgage Approvals 64.58 67.2 68.6 69.4 72.5 97.6 Thousand [+]
Mortgage Applications 40488.00 42900 43300 44600 45800 52600 Units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63 64.48 63.1 63.1 61.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 25.50 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.5 1.4 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 53.10 52.5 53.6 53.7 53.2 52.4 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 44 44 45 44 43 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.80 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.80 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 6.00 6.91 7.41 9.86 9.31 7.72 celsius [+]
Precipitation 224.00 103 103 103 103 103 mm [+]