South Africa Interest Rate 1998-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The South African Reserve Bank cut its benchmark repo rate steady by 25 bps to 6.5 percent on March 28th 2018, in line with market expectations, mentioning lower inflation expectations. The Committee added that the upside inflationary pressure from the increase in the VAT rate will be offset by the stronger exchange rate. Interest Rate in South Africa averaged 12.65 percent from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.99 percent in June of 1998 and a record low of 5 percent in July of 2012.

South Africa Interest Rate
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South Africa Cuts Interest Rate by 25 Bps to 6.5%

The South African Reserve Bank cut its benchmark repo rate steady by 25 bps to 6.5 percent on March 28th 2018, in line with market expectations, mentioning lower inflation expectations. The Committee added that the upside inflationary pressure from the increase in the VAT rate will be offset by the stronger exchange rate.

Excerpts from the statement by Governor Lesetja Kganyago:

The inflation forecast of the SARB has shown a moderate improvement despite the adverse impact of the VAT increase due to be implemented in April. This increase, combined with base effects and other indirect tax increases, implies that the low point of the inflation cycle was reached in the first quarter of 2018, at a forecast average of 4.1%. Headline inflation is expected to average 4.9% in 2018 (unchanged from the previous forecast), 5.2% in 2019 (down from 5.4%), and 5.1% in 2020. A peak of 5.5% is expected by the first quarter of 2019 before the VAT increase falls out of the data. The forecast for core inflation is unchanged at 4.6% for 2018 and is 0.2 percentage points lower, at 4.9%, for 2019. It is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in 2020.

The main changes in the forecast related to the VAT increase and the exchange rate. The VAT increase is expected to add about 0.6 percentage points to the headline inflation trajectory for the four quarters from the second quarter of 2018, with marginal second-round effects persisting into subsequent quarters. The improved exchange rate has softened the impact of the indirect tax adjustments on the inflation forecast. The implied starting point for the rand is R11.97 against the US dollar compared with R12.90 at the time of the previous MPC meeting.

Since the previous meeting of the MPC, the rand has appreciated by 4.8% against the US dollar, by 3.2% against the euro, and by 3.5% on a trade-weighted basis. At current levels, the SARB’s model assesses the rand to be somewhat overvalued, and further strengthening potential is probably limited.

The domestic economic growth outlook for this year is more favourable but remains challenging. This follows an upward revision of historical gross domestic product (GDP) data and a fourth-quarter outcome of 3.1% which surprised on the upside. Following an annual growth rate of 1.3% in 2017, the SARB expects a growth rate of 1.7% for 2018 compared with 1.4% previously. The forecast for 2019 is 1.5%, marginally lower than the previous forecast of 1.6%, while a growth rate of 2.0% is forecast for 2020. At these growth rates, the negative output gap, which measured -1.1% in 2017, is expected to close in 2020.

The MPC assesses the risks to the inflation forecast to be more or less evenly balanced. Some of the key domestic risks and uncertainties that overshadowed the outlook in recent meetings have abated. The government budget was generally well received, but implementation risks remain. While the recent sovereign ratings outcome was positive for the rand, further sustained appreciation of the local currency is not expected. The exchange rate is currently assessed to be less of a risk to the inflation outlook. However, the rand will remain sensitive to a faster pace of normalisation in the advanced economies, possible heightened global financial market volatility, as well as domestic developments.

The MPC was of the view that, in light of the improved inflation outlook and the moderation in risks to the forecast, there was some room to provide further accommodation without undermining the inflation trajectory or the downward trend in inflation expectations. Accordingly, the MPC has decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% with effect from 29 March 2018. Four members preferred a reduction while three members preferred an unchanged stance.

SARB | Stefanie Moya |
3/28/2018 1:56:08 PM

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2017-11-23 01:20 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2018-01-18 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
2018-03-28 01:15 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.75% 6.5% 6.75%
2018-05-24 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5%
2018-07-19 01:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5%
2018-09-20 01:20 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5%

South Africa Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.50 6.50 23.99 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.90 6.90 16.96 5.06 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 245695.00 236919.00 259814.00 415.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1687293.00 1656577.00 1700792.00 1482.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2790635.00 2752647.00 2805859.00 2887.00 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3393214.00 3411593.00 3411593.00 4796.00 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5198774.00 5195169.00 5198774.00 114781.00 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 49980.00 50050.00 51889.00 5316.00 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3504043.00 3479431.00 3504043.00 4051.00 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.17 6.15 18.86 5.15 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.00 10.25 25.50 5.00 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 667440.00 665203.00 801122.00 543.00 ZAR Million [+]

South Africa Interest Rate

In South Africa, the interest rates decisions are taken by the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The official interest rate is the repo rate. This is the rate at which central banks lend or discount eligible paper for deposit money banks, typically shown on an end-of-period basis. This page provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. South Africa Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.50 6.50 23.99 5.00 1998 - 2018 percent Daily

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Turkey 8.00 Apr/18
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Brazil 6.50 Mar/18
India 6.00 Apr/18
China 4.35 Apr/18
Indonesia 4.25 Apr/18
United States 1.75 May/18
Australia 1.50 May/18
South Korea 1.50 Apr/18
Canada 1.25 Apr/18
United Kingdom 0.50 Apr/18
Euro Area 0.00 Apr/18
France 0.00 Apr/18
Germany 0.00 Apr/18
Italy 0.00 Apr/18
Netherlands 0.00 Apr/18
Spain 0.00 Apr/18
Japan -0.10 Apr/18
Switzerland -0.75 Apr/18