South Africa | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 1.3 1.1 1.1 2.7 2.1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 27.70 27.5 28 27.8 27.1 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.5 4.7 5 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 4560.00 -6639 2117 1442 984 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 52 54 54 54 53 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 12.82 13.64 13.5 13.37 13.23 11.71 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 9.08 8.74 8.82 8.91 9 9.95 percent [+]
Stock Market 57742.92 56500 56000 55400 54800 48500 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 1.3 1.1 1.1 2.7 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80 1.2 1.1 0.8 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 294.84 360 278 275 271 420 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 3117014.00 3130087 3140365 3148371 3154505 3165286 ZAR Million [+]
Gross National Product 3085606.00 3087278 3089206 3089712 3089581 3078053 ZAR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 617647.10 619712 619923 620090 619618 607473 ZAR Million [+]
GDP per capita 7504.30 7417 7398 7378 7359 7156 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12260.20 12230 12223 12215 12208 12143 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 82009.97 83974 81747 77501 74390 61200 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 108735.26 108455 108198 107842 107487 103496 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 383325.60 385205 385773 385173 384438 381022 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 238564.29 238143 238061 237596 236869 240000 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 472908.40 471915 470960 470013 469075 461060 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Services 624844.78 626457 628025 629291 630357 633314 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 264878.82 265226 265506 265702 265825 264493 ZAR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 63774.81 63293 63322 63177 63031 68800 ZAR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 27.70 27.5 28 27.8 27.1 24 percent [+]
Employed Persons 9589000.00 9576126 9563797 9552314 9540321 9020000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 6210.00 5800 6146 6103 6103 5140 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.90 60 60.2 60.2 59.58 61 percent [+]
Labour Costs 146.40 152 153 155 157 167 Index Points [+]
Wages 19608.00 19503 19686 19769 19819 19632 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 17023.00 16618 16674 16646 16609 16272 ZAR/Month [+]
Population 55.91 57 58 58 58 59.44 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 61 61 61 61 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 10300.00 10300 10300 10360 10400 10630 ZAR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 6460.00 6460 6460 6460 6530 6700 ZAR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3950.00 3950 4050 4079 4108 4069 ZAR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 52.20 52.32 52.41 53.53 54.04 51.51 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 21300.00 21300 21300 21700 21700 23200 ZAR/Month [+]
Employment Rate 43.30 43.39 43.21 43.22 43.25 45.12 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.5 4.7 5 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.63 0.67 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.20 105 105 106 106 110 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.90 105 105 105 105 109 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.40 5.3 4.7 4.81 4.9 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.60 139 103 103 102 144 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.10 5.3 5.1 5.1 5 4.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 149.10 148 148 148 148 146 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 137.60 136 136 136 136 134 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.30 5.5 5.4 5.2 5 6 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 104.00 105 105 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 104.80 113 103 102 102 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.14 6.9 6.7 6.7 7.66 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 238525.00 234545 234403 234343 234288 233780 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1655019.00 1656453 1656185 1655742 1655292 1651240 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2714733.00 2743218 2761358 2766659 2767752 2760035 ZAR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 3306645.00 3334751 3360532 3378036 3389447 3397184 ZAR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5122536.00 5158034 5172346 5175199 5174094 5148397 ZAR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50297.00 49144 51213 51251 51202 50645 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 3411157.00 3442829 3475260 3500114 3518598 3553401 ZAR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.17 6.6 8.03 8.12 8.21 5.4 percent [+]
Lending Rate 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 763366.00 783000 741541 740795 740106 977000 ZAR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 4560.00 -6639 2117 1442 984 -1700 ZAR Million [+]
Exports 104507.80 90804 103659 103600 103462 99742 ZAR Million [+]
Imports 99946.30 97443 98635 98435 98205 101442 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account -108888.00 -89000 -99000 -102000 -94392 -159000 ZAR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -1.86 -3.1 percent [+]
External Debt 158533.00 153000 164327 164748 164835 166000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1300502.00 1340509 1291200 1286100 1281400 1518528 [+]
Gold Reserves 125.25 127 128 128 129 131 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 4.09 2.42 2.18 1.93 1.69 1.99 [+]
Weapons Sales 59.00 60.74 57.49 57.79 58.09 58.4 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 2.00 2 2 2 3 5 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1830.00 1801 1798 1796 1793 1770 ZAR Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 51.70 52 54 54 54 53 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.90 -4.2 -3.62 -3.58 -3.53 -4.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -28617.00 26500 -4327 -5354 -5643 32600 ZAR Million [+]
Government Spending 633380.00 671000 632744 632413 631982 697000 ZAR Million [+]
Government Revenues 76436.00 147236 95893 94108 92721 1512702 ZAR Million [+]
Government Debt 63923.00 49500 67371 67527 67569 55800 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 105053.00 113502 122703 116237 113120 121440 ZAR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3424.40 3426 3427 3427 3428 3431 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 34.00 40 36.54 37.79 39.57 45 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.60 54.5 54.7 54.7 50.77 55.9 [+]
Industrial Production 2.20 1.9 0.91 1.01 1.05 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 -0.2 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.50 81.9 81.25 81.3 81.35 81.5 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -5527.00 2467 2002 2395 3648 5244 ZAR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 216.00 186 194 201 206 226 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 49754.00 49535 49411 49020 48600 45782 [+]
Car Registrations 32821.00 32695 32379 31798 31209 27516 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.20 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.11 1 percent [+]
Internet Speed 6736.79 6768 6705 6625 6537 5741 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 4274668.00 4233225 4261257 4237882 4236845 4153816 IP [+]
Steel Production 565.80 585 608 626 640 683 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 5.20 0.5 0.42 0.1 0 1.2 percent [+]
Coincident Index 95.10 94.68 94.98 95.29 95.58 97.85 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.32 4.42 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.53 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 61.00 48 50 50 50 45 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.80 49.23 49.83 49.87 49.87 49.87 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 82.00 72 67 64 62 69 [+]
Electricity Production 21786.00 21350 21009 20802 20609 19338 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 45.00 45 46 46 46 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 64.00 60 62 62 62 57 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.00 -7 -5 -6 -4 1.6 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 0.8 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 2.2 4.14 4.18 4.2 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1897011.00 1894119 1900207 1904170 1907849 1918263 ZAR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 2760742.00 2660000 2848646 2887559 2925855 3140000 ZAR Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.20 -1.8 0.22 0.41 0.44 0.2 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 5.43 7.51 6.77 7.74 8.63 3.11 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 10.25 10 10.5 10.73 10.96 8.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.02 0.95 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.26 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 33.90 37.5 34.13 34.18 34.25 36 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 74.40 78.5 70.15 69.45 68.76 77 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 544.47 517 613 621 628 530 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 29 29 30 30 31 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 43 47.5 49.75 52 67 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 14 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 2.00 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.99 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 1.00 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.99 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 24.00 20.88 17.18 14.73 18.16 18.64 celsius [+]
Precipitation 19.00 38.11 38.33 38.04 38.01 38.1 mm [+]