Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.80 2.9 3 3 3.3 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.20 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 113.36 300 446 443 448 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 250 250 247 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 112.62 112 111 110 108 95.97 [+]
Stock Market 22911.27 20500 20300 20100 19900 17600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 2.50 2.4 2 2.2 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4939.38 5350 5870 5870 5870 6660 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 534106.80 535432 536711 537881 538324 537873 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 560125.30 554970 556032 556307 556571 555718 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 127826.00 126454 126786 126906 126957 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 47607.70 45100 47864 47909 47953 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38239.80 36000 38178 38163 38148 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 5189 5258 5326 5395 5777 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 29512 29726 29940 30154 32982 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 105310 105128 104947 104765 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 255 260 264 269 320 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30639 30593 30546 30499 29483 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 41345 50530 59715 68900 85779 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 24592 24531 24471 24410 23920 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 9441 9661 9881 10101 11955 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80 2.9 3 3 3.3 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 65440.00 65479 65469 65465 65461 65432 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1870.00 1869 1872 1875 1879 1911 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 7084.00 7041 7036 7031 7026 6980 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 21310.00 21126 21044 20971 20908 20593 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.20 58.91 59.14 59.15 59.19 59.47 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.80 60.45 60.86 60.89 61 61.53 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.28 1.29 1.3 1.31 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.10 4.97 5.02 5.04 5.06 5.22 percent [+]
Productivity 103.90 99.85 99.4 98.98 98.59 95.66 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 965.07 968 967 964 962 938 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 400.41 343 366 362 354 325 Thousand [+]
Wages 300874.00 672000 322000 545000 306000 701000 JPY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 332670.00 808 350 563 342 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.60 0.69 0.7 0.78 0.83 1.14 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 860 860 860 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 126 126 126 127 124 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.20 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.1 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.60 103 100 100 100 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.60 103 101 101 101 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.80 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 101.30 104 101 104 101 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 99.80 99.02 99.05 99.08 99.11 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 97.40 96.29 96.63 96.97 97.31 100 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 95.10 93.57 94.11 94.65 95.19 99.26 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.30 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.50 3.5 3.7 4 3.6 1.8 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 99.70 99.69 99.68 99.66 99.64 99.38 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 98.40 98.54 98.46 98.41 98.35 98 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.02 -0.02 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 96984.20 96355 96393 96366 96346 96192 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 726123.60 716961 717040 716907 716685 714282 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 987783.80 980251 980609 980692 980642 979423 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1316508.20 1318746 1326424 1332520 1337281 1346197 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 521860.00 518552 520705 521397 521381 515926 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1261200.00 1260191 1257213 1255309 1253802 1242472 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 450486.00 445373 445373 445373 445373 445373 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30 0.3 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -84.80 62 -620 -20 -180 250 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -487.60 157 181 181 181 181 JPY Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 231.10 234 234 234 234 241 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.70 2.61 2.41 2.27 2.14 1.27 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 113.36 300 446 443 448 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 6920.44 5900 6499 6421 6357 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 6807.08 5600 6032 5981 5929 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 2176.40 1837 1574 1405 1297 1115 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.70 3.7 3.76 3.82 3.87 2.66 percent [+]
External Debt 408292.00 390461 390410 389551 388339 377309 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 102.40 105 105 105 105 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7911.00 7939 7132 6659 6342 5733 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows -8703.00 12823 10990 9966 9095 5841 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 17421000.00 15536173 15941598 15097681 14938129 11999334 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2595200.00 2308500 2335100 2351300 2359100 2313900 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.22 765 765 765 764 762 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.60 2.65 2.39 2.12 1.86 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.16 4.21 4.26 4.31 4.72 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 250 250 247 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -4.28 -4.26 -4.24 -4.21 -4.16 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -99315.00 -52411 1761 -82917 -39306 -55499 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 106160.90 106310 106446 106469 106515 106473 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 41569.00 41838 41905 41972 42039 42391 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1360.00 1335 1329 1323 1318 1270 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 39.47 38.52 38.34 38.15 37.96 37.75 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 25.00 10 21.92 18.99 15.18 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.20 53.2 53.8 52.4 52.4 51 [+]
Services Pmi 51.20 52.1 52 51.7 51.33 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 5.90 2.86 3.4 2.35 1.66 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.50 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.90 1.2 3.41 2.36 1.67 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 102.00 105 105 106 106 108 Index Points [+]
New Orders 1041.95 991 991 995 998 1020 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 5.00 0.12 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 515.10 -251 284 588 755 477 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 677.00 710 740 765 789 954 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 17892.83 18736 18504 19870 19043 18210 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 116.50 116 114 113 112 106 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 55.10 54.49 51.26 49.7 48.48 45.45 [+]
Car Production 717252.00 671638 678885 689690 691203 687698 Units [+]
Car Registrations 222938.00 247775 244725 249532 258550 262838 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 106.10 106 104 103 102 97.11 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 15.00 10.03 8.87 6.39 3.53 -10.47 [+]
IP Addresses 43689566.00 42896482 42604062 42319334 42038894 40020117 IP [+]
Private Investment 4.20 2.76 1.96 0.93 0.14 -1.52 percent [+]
Mining Production 18.70 5.37 2.94 0.95 -0.11 -1.33 percent [+]
Steel Production 8971.16 8844 8807 8787 8773 8748 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 23.00 22.58 21.47 20.04 18.42 7.1 [+]
Cement Production 5199.00 5170 5302 5377 5440 5875 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 9 9 9 9 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.20 52.18 51.34 51.31 51.41 51.41 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 35 34 34 33 30 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 71 71 71 72 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 19 19 19 18 19 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 44.90 45.08 45.27 45.02 44.64 42.92 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 1.2 0 0 0 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.20 0.5 1.23 1.34 1.46 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending 0.00 0.5 -0.67 -0.7 -0.71 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 299651.00 301589 302248 302145 302283 301892 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 415.63 440 427 429 429 429 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 19.30 11.31 14.19 11.3 12.9 12.35 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.2 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40 53.72 52.77 52.18 51.71 50.96 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Credit 330872.00 397419 417056 438070 450774 473239 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.25 1.19 1.21 1.1 1.1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Starts -4.80 1.5 1.1 1.1 -0.7 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 6.70 3 -1 -1 2.09 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 110.01 108 108 108 108 107 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.99 62 62 62.01 61.53 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30 30 30 30 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 54 54 54 54 53 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.34 29.17 28.99 28.81 27.89 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 14.92 14.79 14.66 14.53 13.74 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.13 14.07 14.01 13.95 13.48 percent [+]