India | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.46 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.88 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -13829.20 -13800 -14500 -16200 -14300 -11100 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.50 69 69.2 69.2 69.2 70 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 64.05 64.74 64.08 63.43 62.77 55.58 [+]
Stock Market 33462.97 31400 31100 30800 30500 27000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.13 6.83 6.9 6.96 7.03 7.77 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.30 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.6 5.7 percent [+]
GDP 2263.52 2340 2500 2500 2500 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 31656.64 32500 34500 33180 34300 40100 INR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 12034713.00 11830552 11785169 11739785 11694401 11344072 INR Tens Of Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9152.11 9143 9110 9075 9044 11000 INR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 1861.50 2000 2500 2500 2500 3500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 6092.60 6100 6500 6500 6500 7000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3245.21 5429 4489 3894 3231 4130 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 2235.39 2263 2212 2284 2247 2530 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5355.42 5041 5200 5090 5217 4620 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 689.67 960 967 856 697 925 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3885.31 3709 3813 3580 3764 3611 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 654.67 620 622 645 634 713 INR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.46 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 29650.00 30240 30312 30385 30457 32200 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 44.85 43.59 43.33 43.08 42.82 40.97 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50 52.45 51.46 51.79 52.13 55.32 percent [+]
Population 1299.00 1311 1315 1317 1348 1340 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 17400.00 22000 22500 22500 22500 27000 INR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 11000.00 13000 13100 13100 13100 18000 INR/Month [+]
Wages 272.19 322 324 326 328 370 INR/Day [+]
Wages High Skilled 44000.00 54500 57000 60000 48467 87500 INR/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30 400 402 404 408 450 INR/Day [+]
Wages Low Skilled 10300.00 15000 15400 15700 12541 18000 INR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 13.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.88 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 137.60 137 138 139 141 158 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 124.60 125 130 130 130 145 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 116.30 116 117 117 117 115 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.93 4 4.4 4.1 4.9 5.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 372.00 345 359 372 385 409 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 518.00 531 494 487 480 510 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.42 3 2.5 2.3 2 3.3 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 118.10 122 125 128 130 151 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.10 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.51 0.32 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 4.75 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.15 6.3 6.3 6.46 6.59 5.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 28342.40 27275 27284 27253 27231 27017 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 29288.32 29374 28983 29044 28993 28709 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 132340.08 132659 134246 135211 135805 136220 INR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 16885.24 17775 17655 17532 17411 16386 INR Billions [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 400900.00 401279 400992 400696 400400 397759 USD Million [+]
Loan Growth 9.60 7.9 10.04 10.32 10.57 7 percent [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 5.75 5.76 5.8 5.84 5.87 6.1 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -13829.20 -13800 -14500 -16200 -14300 -11100 USD Million [+]
Exports 26195.76 25000 24700 24600 25000 28900 USD Million [+]
Imports 40025.00 38800 39200 40800 39300 40000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -7200.00 -4200 -3400 -5000 -7928 -2460 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.70 -1.25 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 485800.00 491881 495712 497300 498873 493055 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 71.80 81.14 82.38 83.63 84.88 66 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -34.56 8.22 9.15 7.15 9.73 10.01 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1571.00 4996 4194 3721 3319 1681 USD Million [+]
Remittances 11373.60 9673 9622 9558 9466 9117 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1005000.00 607600 567100 539000 517000 762000 [+]
Gold Reserves 557.77 551 548 545 542 519 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 744.00 734 732 729 727 710 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 7.53 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.7 [+]
Weapons Sales 42.00 36.21 34.68 33.14 31.61 19.74 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.50 69 69.2 69.2 69.2 70 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5253.21 -4746 -4272 -3880 -3559 -1220 INR Billion [+]
Government Spending 3962.84 3120 3236 3637 3791 3520 INR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 7673.27 5243 3080 2567 2570 2618 INR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 12926.48 9678 7224 5942 5262 4496 INR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 55630.70 57663 57837 58011 58185 59004 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 64.10 56 56.8 55.9 56.5 59 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.60 52 52.8 51.5 51.8 51.2 [+]
Services PMI 48.50 51 51.9 52 51 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.20 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.9 6.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.10 -0.27 0.46 0.66 0.67 0.87 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.50 2.7 3.5 3.4 5.21 5.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 770.00 757 744 734 722 633 INR Billion [+]
Car Production 256336.00 243826 245318 243726 242974 234146 Units [+]
Car Registrations 241856.00 252739 258087 254945 255169 246979 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 6492.06 8727 8654 9079 10309 12339 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 9378846.00 9299370 9274399 9221603 9152764 8729667 IP [+]
Mining Production 0.20 4.3 3.9 5.9 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
Steel Production 8629.00 8491 8468 8456 8450 8403 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 23615.00 23314 22937 22483 22068 19765 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.59 4.52 4.61 4.61 4.61 5.51 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 40.00 39 42 44 44 51 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.30 52.9 53 51.4 51.56 51.6 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 39 39 39 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 76 78 78 77 72 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 100.00 129 128 128 128 126 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 128.00 132 139 137 130 133 [+]
Consumer Spending 17059.78 17200 17950 18200 18500 22000 INR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 154965120.00 167133082 169732864 172332647 174932430 231000000 INR Million [+]
Personal Savings 26099.21 27379 27621 27863 28106 29730 INR Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.45 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 7.5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 10.60 10.68 10.64 10.61 10.56 10.16 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.07 1.02 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.86 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 141.00 142 146 148 150 175 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 4.70 3.4 3.9 3.3 2.2 3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 18.00 23.58 24.63 23.86 23.51 23.94 celsius [+]
Precipitation 6.00 88.12 85.34 83.61 85.68 85.08 mm [+]