Stock Market - Forecast - 2018/2020

TRADING ECONOMICS believes a correction in stock markets is long overdue. We project stock markets to stabilize in the next few weeks and then to gradually fall throughout the rest of 2018. In the short term, more gains are possible as investors better judge the impact of the US tax reform on company earnings. However, in the medium term, the removal of excessive monetary liquidity from the financial system by central banks will make it more expensive for companies to borrow to buy their own stocks and investors to take loans to leverage their stock portfolios. As volatility rises, risk aversion will come back from hibernation, eventually triggering at least a 10% fall in stock markets around the world. TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for major stock market indexes and shares based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. The current stock market forecasts were last revised on January 19 of 2018.


Major Price Day Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Dow Jones 25,219 19.01 0.08% 25,526 25,100 24,679 24,269
S&P 500 2,732 1.02 0.04% 2,746 2,700 2,654 2,610
NASDAQ 100 6,771 24.26 -0.36% 6,607 6,435 6,267 6,103
NASDAQ 7,239 16.97 -0.23% 7,085 6,914 6,746 6,584
S&P MidCap 400 1,901 4.10 0.22% 1,919 1,874 1,830 1,786
US 600 942 5.20 0.55% 940 912 884 857
Russell 2000 1,544 6.35 0.41% 1,545 1,499 1,455 1,412
S&P VIX 18.04 1.22 -1.22% 8.18 5.95 4.33 3.15
US 100 10,426 100.45 0.97% 10,621 10,450 10,280 10,114
NIKKEI 225 21,720 266.56 1.24% 23,220 22,526 21,853 21,200
FTSE 100 7,295 60.14 0.83% 7,578 7,417 7,258 7,102
FTSE All 4,011 32.15 0.81% 4,177 4,096 4,015 3,937
DAX 12,452 105.79 0.86% 12,876 12,533 12,200 11,876
CAC 40 5,282 59.06 1.13% 5,360 5,218 5,080 4,945
FTSE MIB 22,793 297.70 1.32% 22,829 22,041 21,280 20,547
IBEX 35 9,832 117.20 1.21% 10,171 9,842 9,525 9,217
Australian All 6,005 3.90 -0.06% 6,033 5,904 5,777 5,652
ASX 200 5,904 4.99 -0.08% 5,912 5,778 5,648 5,520
ASX 50 5,786 3.97 -0.07% 5,773 5,638 5,505 5,376
SHANGHAI 3,199 14.20 0.45% 3,363 3,291 3,220 3,150
CSI 300 3,967 31.33 0.80% 4,151 4,046 3,943 3,843
SHANGHAI 50 2,872 19.07 0.67% 2,978 2,895 2,814 2,736
SENSEX 34,011 286.71 -0.84% 34,044 33,292 32,557 31,837
MICEX 2,255 10.18 -0.45% 2,183 2,111 2,042 1,974
TSX 15,453 44.98 0.29% 16,079 15,791 15,509 15,231
KOSPI 2,422 26.64 1.11% 2,463 2,406 2,350 2,296
iBovespa 84,525 234.01 0.28% 76,132 72,545 69,133 65,874
IPC Mexico 48,883 74.39 0.15% 48,139 46,940 45,770 44,634
AEX 532 4.70 0.89% 548 536 525 513
SMI 8,987 68.92 0.77% 9,252 9,045 8,842 8,644
JALSH-All Share 59,122 410.76 -0.69% 59,156 57,701 56,282 54,899
FTSE/JSE TOP 40 52,111 454.65 -0.86% 52,326 50,911 49,540 48,201
STI 3,444 0.00 0.00% 3,478 3,407 3,337 3,269
Hang Seng 31,115 599.83 1.97% 31,008 30,137 29,289 28,465
PSI Geral 3,010 28.88 0.97% 3,041 2,968 2,897 2,828
NZX 50 8,125 61.98 0.77% 8,114 7,979 7,846 7,716
Euronext 100 1,021 11.50 1.14% 1,042 1,018 994 971
Euro Stoxx 50 3,427 37.17 1.10% 3,522 3,432 3,344 3,258
NIFTY 50 10,452 93.20 -0.88% 10,518 10,283 10,052 9,827

America Price Day Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Dow Jones 25,219 19.01 0.08% 25,526 25,100 24,679 24,269
S&P 500 2,732 1.02 0.04% 2,746 2,700 2,654 2,610
NASDAQ 100 6,771 24.26 -0.36% 6,607 6,435 6,267 6,103
NASDAQ 7,239 16.97 -0.23% 7,085 6,914 6,746 6,584
S&P MidCap 400 1,901 4.10 0.22% 1,919 1,874 1,830 1,786
US 600 942 5.20 0.55% 940 912 884 857
Russell 2000 1,544 6.35 0.41% 1,545 1,499 1,455 1,412
S&P VIX 18.04 1.22 -1.22% 8.18 5.95 4.33 3.15
US 100 10,426 100.45 0.97% 10,621 10,450 10,280 10,114
Ecuador General Index 1,239 1.50 -0.12% 1,213 1,182 1,152 1,122
TSX 15,453 44.98 0.29% 16,079 15,791 15,509 15,231
iBovespa 84,525 234.01 0.28% 76,132 72,545 69,133 65,874
IPC Mexico 48,883 74.39 0.15% 48,139 46,940 45,770 44,634
S&P/BVL Peru General Index TR (PEN) 20,895 36.89 0.18% 20,206 19,641 19,090 18,556
Merval 32,677 653.61 2.04% 31,972 30,402 28,909 27,490
IBC 4,505 60.87 1.37% 1,675 1,412 1,190 1,004
COLCAP 1,521 6.35 0.42% 1,483 1,452 1,423 1,393
IGPA 28,282 35.96 -0.13% 27,934 26,989 26,078 25,196
BVPSI 454 0.47 0.10% 445 440 436 432
JSE 288,754 1,896.34 0.64% 267,356 245,392 225,204 206,707
BSX 2,485 204.64 8.97% 2,220 2,131 2,045 1,962

Europe Price Day Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
FTSE 100 7,295 60.14 0.83% 7,578 7,417 7,258 7,102
FTSE All 4,011 32.15 0.81% 4,177 4,096 4,015 3,937
DAX 12,452 105.79 0.86% 12,876 12,533 12,200 11,876
CAC 40 5,282 59.06 1.13% 5,360 5,218 5,080 4,945
FTSE MIB 22,793 297.70 1.32% 22,829 22,041 21,280 20,547
IBEX 35 9,832 117.20 1.21% 10,171 9,842 9,525 9,217
MICEX 2,255 10.18 -0.45% 2,183 2,111 2,042 1,974
AEX 532 4.70 0.89% 548 536 525 513
BIST 100 116,511 285.37 0.25% 110,002 105,757 101,672 97,748
SMI 8,987 68.92 0.77% 9,252 9,045 8,842 8,644
OMXS 30 1,557 14.21 0.92% 1,583 1,543 1,504 1,466
WIG 62,819 259.45 -0.41% 64,438 62,498 60,618 58,791
WIG 20 2,407 16.61 -0.69% 2,492 2,397 2,305 2,217
Euronext BEL 20 3,941 31.08 0.79% 4,067 3,971 3,877 3,785
Oslo Bors All-Share 904 8.88 0.99% 915 891 867 845
ATX 3,408 15.61 0.46% 3,497 3,387 3,280 3,176
OMX Copenhagen 1,006 20.06 2.03% 1,004 976 948 921
OMX Helsinki 9,931 163.15 1.67% 9,507 9,274 9,047 8,825
OMX Helsinki 25 4,134 69.75 1.72% 3,937 3,833 3,733 3,634
ISEQ 6,833 55.29 0.82% 6,865 6,667 6,475 6,289
Athens General 846 3.17 0.38% 815 780 747 715
PSI Geral 3,010 28.88 0.97% 3,041 2,968 2,897 2,828
PSI 20 5,505 41.54 0.76% 5,492 5,339 5,191 5,047
PX 1,112 0.47 0.04% 1,093 1,071 1,049 1,028
BET 8,329 69.53 0.84% 8,012 7,796 7,587 7,383
BUX 39,139 616.37 1.60% 38,390 37,140 35,930 34,755
PFTS 336 0.02 0.01% 330 326 321 317
SAX 333 3.57 1.08% 329 317 306 296
LuxX 1,659 32.88 2.02% 1,654 1,584 1,517 1,454
CROBEX 1,856 1.98 0.11% 1,825 1,771 1,719 1,669
SOFIX 696 2.76 0.40% 701 686 671 656
SBITOP 816 4.18 0.52% 803 785 767 750
OMX Vilnius 674 1.62 0.24% 657 647 637 627
BELEX 15 761 9.48 -1.23% 751 735 719 703
SASX-10 611 14.40 2.41% 558 542 526 511
MSE 4,477 9.82 0.22% 4,378 4,305 4,232 4,162
Euronext 100 1,021 11.50 1.14% 1,042 1,018 994 971
ICEX 1,366 11.84 0.87% 1,289 1,244 1,201 1,159
CSE General 70 0.46 0.66% 67 65 63 61
MBI 10 2,763 2.83 -0.10% 2,585 2,523 2,461 2,401
Euro Stoxx 50 3,427 37.17 1.10% 3,522 3,432 3,344 3,258
OMX Riga 1,032 7.56 0.74% 990 956 924 893
OMX Tallinn 1,271 4.19 -0.33% 1,246 1,223 1,200 1,177

Asia Price Day Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
NIKKEI 225 21,720 266.56 1.24% 23,220 22,526 21,853 21,200
SHANGHAI 3,199 14.20 0.45% 3,363 3,291 3,220 3,150
CSI 300 3,967 31.33 0.80% 4,151 4,046 3,943 3,843
SHANGHAI 50 2,872 19.07 0.67% 2,978 2,895 2,814 2,736
SENSEX 34,011 286.71 -0.84% 34,044 33,292 32,557 31,837
KOSPI 2,422 26.64 1.11% 2,463 2,406 2,350 2,296
DSE Broad 6,050 13.93 0.23% 5,992 5,857 5,726 5,598
JCI 6,592 2.82 -0.04% 6,275 6,142 6,013 5,886
TASI 7,510 90.76 1.22% 7,263 7,050 6,843 6,641
TAIEX 10,421 49.34 0.48% 10,754 10,527 10,305 10,087
ADX General 4,577 11.44 -0.25% 4,485 4,359 4,236 4,116
SET 50 1,172 2.86 0.24% 1,165 1,143 1,121 1,100
FKLCI 1,838 3.35 0.18% 1,800 1,775 1,750 1,726
STI 3,444 0.00 0.00% 3,478 3,407 3,337 3,269
TA-100 1,355 14.11 1.05% 1,371 1,343 1,316 1,289
Hang Seng 31,115 599.83 1.97% 31,008 30,137 29,289 28,465
PSEi 8,612 14.33 0.17% 8,607 8,356 8,113 7,878
KSE 100 43,627 684.75 1.59% 40,947 39,049 37,237 35,507
KASE 2,327 9.00 0.39% 2,277 2,207 2,138 2,072
QE 9,028 32.96 -0.36% 8,594 8,254 7,928 7,615
HNX 124 2.29 1.88% 118 115 112 109
VN 1,060 17.94 1.72% 1,036 1,011 985 961
Kuwait Price 6,764 58.97 0.88% 6,439 6,259 6,083 5,913
SECTMIND 411 1.01 0.25% 409 398 388 377
MSM TOP 30 5,017 10.75 0.21% 4,961 4,884 4,808 4,732
ASPI 6,567 13.74 0.21% 6,346 6,246 6,148 6,052
Blom 1,166 9.93 -0.85% 1,146 1,121 1,097 1,074
ASE 2,229 3.45 -0.15% 2,115 2,088 2,061 2,034
LSX Composite 950 0.20 0.02% 915 863 814 768
DFM general 3,330 5.68 -0.17% 3,419 3,328 3,239 3,153
MSE TOP 20 21,564 45.89 -0.21% 19,536 18,352 17,240 16,196
NIFTY 50 10,452 93.20 -0.88% 10,518 10,283 10,052 9,827
Estirad 1,339.72 2.67 -0.20% 1,300.00 1,290.00 1,280.00 1,260.00

Australia Price Day Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
Australian All 6,005 3.90 -0.06% 6,033 5,904 5,777 5,652
ASX 200 5,904 4.99 -0.08% 5,912 5,778 5,648 5,520
ASX 50 5,786 3.97 -0.07% 5,773 5,638 5,505 5,376
NZX 50 8,125 61.98 0.77% 8,114 7,979 7,846 7,716

Africa Price Day Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18
NSE-All Share 42,639 34.43 0.08% 42,152 40,410 38,740 37,144
JALSH-All Share 59,122 410.76 -0.69% 59,156 57,701 56,282 54,899
FTSE/JSE TOP 40 52,111 454.65 -0.86% 52,326 50,911 49,540 48,201
Egypt EGX 30 14,966 159.98 1.08% 14,530 13,991 13,472 12,972
Casablanca CFG 25 13,161 56.49 0.43% 12,641 12,348 12,064 11,785
NSE All Share 179 0.30 -0.17% 172 167 161 156
Nairobi 20 3,703 4.01 -0.11% 3,611 3,513 3,419 3,326
DSEI 2,370 12.34 -0.52% 2,066 1,782 1,538 1,327
TUN 6,592 11.03 0.17% 6,193 6,106 6,021 5,937
GGSECI 3,335 1.76 -0.05% 2,710 2,647 2,586 2,526
Gaborone 8,718 0.57 -0.01% 8,729 8,643 8,559 8,475
SEMDEX 2,288 1.02 0.04% 2,233 2,208 2,184 2,159
NSX Overall 1,436 0.65 -0.05% 1,251 1,204 1,158 1,114
Zimbabwe Industrial Index 297.16 0.43 -0.14% 502.69 314.05 208.68 304.91

TRADING ECONOMICS forecasts are based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. We work hard to make sure any information we present is accurate and reliable. However, our forecasts are not recommendations to buy or sell nor we are a registered investment adviser. Moreover, the past performance of our models is not necessarily indicative of future results.