Euro Area | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.80 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 7.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 18923.20 29000 31000 29000 23400 25000 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 88.7 88.7 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 3560.53 3570 3540 3500 3460 3070 points [+]
Government Bond 10y -0.53 -0.46 -0.47 -0.47 -0.48 -0.53 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2 percent [+]
GDP 11885.66 12800 13600 13600 13600 14800 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2592.38 2610 2630 2650 2670 2930 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 542.77 544 546 548 550 567 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 39105.31 39300 39700 39700 39700 41300 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38234.81 38400 38900 38900 38900 40200 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.80 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 7.4 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 14242.00 14600 14500 14500 14300 14000 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 156.28 156 157 158 158 164 Million [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 18.60 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.6 15.1 percent [+]
Productivity 104.60 107 108 109 110 118 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 111.10 114 99.3 111 104 120 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 2.00 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.8 percent [+]
Population 341.01 341 343 343 343 346 Million [+]
Full Time Employment 113328.90 113800 114200 114400 114600 119000 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.10 57.6 57.8 57.9 58 60 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 31435.80 31400 31400 31500 31600 34200 Thousand [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.54 64.54 64.7 64.7 64.7 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 64.32 64.32 64 64 64 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.24 105 107 109 111 121 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.37 107 108 110 112 125 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 108.20 111 112 113 114 122 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 105.20 109 111 113 115 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.50 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.1 percent [+]
Import Prices 103.40 103 104 104 105 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.40 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 2 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 101.29 106 108 110 112 125 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 101.79 105 107 109 111 121 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.38 -0.16 -0.07 -0.02 -0.04 0.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 7701174.00 7850000 7980000 8120000 8240000 10900000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11132651.00 11400000 11600000 11800000 12000000 13800000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11804000.00 12100000 12300000 12500000 12700000 15900000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 61.64 64 68 70 72 97 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4456579.00 4560000 4660000 4780000 4840000 6020000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10837436.00 11000000 11070000 11140000 11170000 11700000 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.70 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 18923.20 29000 31000 29000 23400 25000 EUR Million [+]
Exports 187857.40 184000 207000 189000 184500 190000 EUR Million [+]
Imports 168934.30 155000 176000 160000 161100 165000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 41.81 48.2 32.2 32.4 33.4 37.4 EUR Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.30 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 13888577.58 14200000 14300000 14400000 14500000 15400000 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 80.32 54.5 36.8 62.3 18.9 41.2 EUR Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 504.77 505 505 505 505 505 Tonnes [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 88.7 88.7 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.50 -1.2 -1 -1 -1 -0.6 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 535.69 542 544 546 548 566 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.70 47.5 47.3 47.3 47.63 46.8 percent [+]
Government Debt 9588159.00 9830000 9880000 9890000 9726494 11200000 EUR Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.49 1.05 1.02 0.98 0.95 1 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 60.60 57.7 57.5 56.8 57 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 56.50 55.9 55.7 55.4 55.2 53.3 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 58.00 55.9 56.4 56.3 55.9 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.70 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.4 2.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.40 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.80 82.9 83 83.1 83.2 84.8 percent [+]
Changes In Inventories 10.12 9.23 9.1 8.04 6.86 6.42 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 29.00 29 25 24 26 32 [+]
Car Registrations 906.19 904 908 871 902 948 Thousand [+]
Mining Production -5.20 0.4 1.5 2 1.9 2.1 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 0.10 0.5 -2.2 -2 -2.4 -6.3 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.10 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.2 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.40 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1409.88 1440 1450 1460 1470 1600 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1709550.00 1710000 1720000 1730000 1740000 1820000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 12.06 11.1 11 11 10.9 10.5 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 13056905.70 13600000 13800000 13900000 14100000 15400000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.16 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.2 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 114.60 113 112 112 112 108 [+]
Consumer Credit 648726.42 667000 674000 686000 692000 732000 EUR Million [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 58.10 58.2 57 57 57 53.7 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 93.55 91.9 90.5 90.5 90.5 87.1 percent [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 16.00 12 12.5 12.4 12.3 10.7 [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 3.10 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 percent [+]
Housing Index 106.85 107 108 109 110 117 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 52.30 52 52.6 53.4 54.2 52.5 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.40 66.2 66 66 66 65.9 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.30 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 42.00 42 42 42 42 42 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.80 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 percent [+]