Canada | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.4 6.4 6.5 6 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1474.50 -1200 -1100 -750 -1049 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 94 94 90.72 93 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.29 1.25 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.07 [+]
Stock Market 16041.98 15600 15400 15300 15100 13400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.84 2.16 2.18 2.2 2.23 2.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.3 1.4 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 1.70 2.1 1.9 2 2.29 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 1529.76 1600 1800 1800 1800 2160 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1860679.00 1841000 1845000 1852000 1882484 1900000 CAD Million [+]
Gross National Product 2116304.00 2125541 2131477 2135190 2137371 2133313 CAD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 397398.00 396224 398438 398009 397471 425000 CAD Million [+]
GDP per capita 50231.90 51300 51700 51700 50258 53000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43087.80 43250 44150 44150 42870 45280 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 26909.00 26643 26437 26258 26092 30500 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 123046.00 123555 123661 123627 123545 120000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 179317.00 178310 177941 177809 177763 180000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 150490.00 149860 149418 148962 148509 136000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 110112.00 110514 110638 110662 110650 111000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1230188.00 1233770 1235968 1237268 1237960 1330000 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 79082.00 79076 79050 79015 78980 82200 CAD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 40912.00 40614 40447 40297 40152 39200 CAD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.4 6.4 6.5 6 6.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18568.90 18599 18694 18749 18780 18100 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1156.50 1360 1140 1143 1149 1340 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 49.90 6.2 2.38 4.36 4.41 4.39 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 29.60 22.81 20.8 17.57 15.13 12.74 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 79.50 31 30.5 23.23 20.26 17.19 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.1 67 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.80 12.9 13 13 11.35 11.8 percent [+]
Productivity 108.99 109 109 109 109 108 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 114.90 118 114 114 114 123 Index Points [+]
Wages 24.24 24.15 24.16 24.15 24.15 25.53 CAD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 25.26 25.09 25.12 25.1 25.09 26.23 CAD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 11.40 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.39 12 CAD/Hour [+]
Population 36.44 36.9 37.3 37.3 37.1 37.9 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Job Vacancies 460215.00 377801 363307 400814 418783 400083 [+]
Living Wage Family 2690.00 2828 2833 2835 2838 2830 CAD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1970.00 2021 2039 2048 2057 2036 CAD/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 16336.30 16300 16100 16100 16469 16000 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 61.80 61.4 61.3 61.3 61.91 62.2 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.24 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.90 132 133 133 131 149 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 130.00 131 131 132 131 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 115.20 115 115 115 115 115 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 113.30 115 116 116 114 120 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 2.2 1.9 2 2.3 2.1 percent [+]
Export Prices 117.60 119 118 118 117 126 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 129.20 133 130 130 129 139 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.30 1 1.1 1.3 1.2 3.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 138.60 139 139 140 140 140 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 133.50 131 132 132 133 136 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.45 1.38 0.9 0.9 1.71 2.1 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 88870.00 89050 89229 89267 89264 89081 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 951372.00 956074 962860 967468 970602 973894 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1566901.00 1577825 1592348 1603386 1611771 1631677 CAD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2320347.00 2343819 2369521 2385036 2394362 2401770 CAD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109564.00 108000 108805 108640 108481 127000 CAD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5274991.00 5200907 5197866 5195915 5194105 5178002 CAD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 86805.00 86762 86603 86549 86495 86011 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 369016.00 365000 373987 374399 374331 383000 CAD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 16810.00 8249 6324 5261 4760 4268 CAD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 266.89 270 271 271 272 272 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1474.50 -1200 -1100 -750 -1049 -2800 CAD Million [+]
Exports 44455.60 47300 47500 47200 44195 43000 CAD Million [+]
Imports 45930.10 48500 48600 46500 45843 46800 CAD Million [+]
Current Account -19346.00 -18068 -17026 -16266 -16120 -13426 CAD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.30 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.82 -1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 631.90 620 630 637 644 628 CAD Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 91.00 88.45 92.99 92.82 92.64 94.74 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 9763.00 7034 7031 7103 7432 7539 CAD Million [+]
Capital Flows -25.00 -5 -11.02 -11.74 -11.55 -8 CAD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.00 2 0.91 1.31 1.76 4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3851.00 3816 3783 3781 3776 3721 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.96 2.3 2.19 2.14 2.09 2.3 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3156507.00 2281900 3040300 3269100 3005500 3026800 [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 149 155 160 166 198 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 92.30 93.1 94 94 90.72 93 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.90 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -1.29 -0.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -3233.00 -312 -1492 -1319 -1230 -312 CAD Million [+]
Government Spending 358066.00 359296 361027 362090 362906 365240 CAD Million [+]
Government Revenues 22252.00 22632 22396 22158 21938 20260 CAD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 23680.00 23190 22930 22635 22355 20173 CAD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 15504.70 15460 15428 15397 15365 15153 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2409.00 2286 2270 2258 2248 2217 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 63.00 57.4 57 56.7 56.91 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.40 55 54 52.9 54 52 [+]
Industrial Production 4.40 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.04 0.9 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.90 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.11 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.97 1.5 1 4.4 0.82 0.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 85.00 82.5 82.6 83.1 84.09 83 percent [+]
New Orders 55537690.00 52682777 52554116 52487007 52409611 51740218 CAD THO [+]
Changes in Inventories 17065.00 13358 10285 7920 6219 3574 CAD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 180.00 195 201 206 212 253 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 80312.00 61300 78327 77902 77152 70100 CAD Million [+]
Car Registrations 167892.00 148511 132015 127482 126058 125428 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Internet Speed 16205.66 17090 17262 17175 17331 16595 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 15582991.00 15941252 15992916 16029189 16042632 15700436 IP [+]
Steel Production 1085.00 1110 1132 1150 1162 1188 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 10.30 2.6 1.8 3.4 2.87 1.3 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.35 5.27 5.34 5.34 5.31 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 14.00 15 13 13 13 9 [+]
Corruption Index 82.00 84 85 85 84 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 9.00 8 8 8 8 5 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 18.00 21 20 20 20 14 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 54.50 53 52.8 52.8 53.58 53.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.20 5.55 5.13 4.89 4.75 4.56 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.30 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1071880.00 1081355 1090765 1099175 1106965 1110000 CAD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1208252.00 1170000 1200000 1200000 1226039 1234718 CAD Million [+]
Personal Savings 2.60 3.32 3.53 3.43 3.48 5 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 595826.00 573000 578000 581000 606920 614000 CAD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 4101759.00 4142850 4201497 4254104 4301363 4552915 CAD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.20 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.55 3.7 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 100.50 101 101 101 101 99.75 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 173.34 170 171 171 171 170 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.94 0.78 0.94 0.93 0.93 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 8224657.00 8034863 8021762 7996824 7970991 7748612 CAD Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 252.18 238 231 224 218 192 Thousand [+]
Housing Index 103.20 119 104 104 104 125 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.50 66 65 66 66.8 63 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 27 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 29 33 33 29 29 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.41 14.36 14.41 14.41 14.31 14.13 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.55 7.58 7.58 7.53 7.44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.83 6.81 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.7 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 32.00 37.27 39.3 39.26 37.98 38.65 mm [+]
Temperature -18.00 -16.85 -14.85 4.51 2.46 -15.52 celsius [+]