Brazil | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 12.20 12.1 11.8 11.4 11.2 9.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.8 3 3.1 3.3 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 3545.75 4800 5000 4500 4000 3000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 72 72 62.55 75 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3.29 3.14 3.11 3.07 3.04 2.69 [+]
Stock Market 73121.50 75000 74300 73500 72800 64400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 10.41 10 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.39 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40 2 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.9 percent [+]
GDP 1796.19 1820 1970 1970 1970 2400 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 295644.96 285600 280900 287000 294011 299000 BRL Million [+]
Gross National Product 1609208.89 1750000 1800000 1850000 1622940 2000000 BRL Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 263924.50 266000 268000 271000 270465 306000 BRL Million [+]
GDP per capita 10826.30 10050 11200 11200 10751 11730 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 14023.70 14500 16000 16000 12871 18800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 18334.73 13000 24500 22342 18743 15500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15514.00 16836 16663 16843 17251 19200 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 31490.74 29356 27268 28563 30700 33500 [+]
GDP From Mining 2644.23 2480 2250 2370 2560 2860 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39977.20 39712 39719 39822 39777 37500 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Services 177647.94 180000 170000 173000 174000 175000 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Transport 8427.19 8167 7875 7986 8237 9140 BRL Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 6435.41 6390 6520 6650 6360 6660 BRL Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.20 12.1 11.8 11.4 11.2 9.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 91.55 91 91.2 91.1 91.09 92 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 12.74 13.5 12.9 12.9 11.94 9 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.80 61.8 61.9 61.9 61.31 62.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 134.84 120 122 122 130 139 Index Points [+]
Wages 2127.00 2050 2058 2025 2089 2500 BRL/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 937.00 937 1090 1090 1090 1280 BRL/Month [+]
Population 206.08 207 208 208 209 212 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 2380.00 2382 2385 2386 2387 2386 BRL/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1450.00 1461 1473 1479 1486 1477 BRL/Month [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 76.60 19 25 58 60.03 20 Thousand [+]
Productivity 134.84 138 133 132 130 162 Index Points [+]
Wages High Skilled 4280.00 4250 4290 4290 4113 4600 BRL/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 2104.00 2060 2075 2078 2059 2560 BRL/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1310.00 1250 1280 1290 1188 1350 BRL/Month [+]
Employment Change -3.60 1.8 -3.5 3 -0.44 1 percent [+]
Employment Rate 54.20 54.4 54.5 54.4 54.34 56 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.8 3 3.1 3.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.28 0.3 1.89 2.73 3.44 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 4894.92 4852 4900 4960 4942 5360 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.85 4 5.2 5.1 5 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 8.30 83.06 92.78 102 112 144 percent [+]
Producer Prices 686.33 640 650 660 709 950 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 128.59 131 132 132 131 125 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 114.60 113 115 115 113 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.30 -1 1.1 1.4 1.6 6 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -3.50 0.7 1.1 1.5 2 4.8 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 8425.58 8494 8676 8791 8864 8933 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 4647.89 4666 4694 4705 4707 5200 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 45.00 45 45 45 47.23 45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 264219.80 261782 261336 261158 260968 259161 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 327996.96 312931 312585 312276 311967 309201 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2428148.43 2442866 2450611 2454769 2456427 2440601 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 5736094.08 5834017 5962277 6075004 6173830 6635267 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 381056.00 380968 380636 380104 379466 549000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5783249.60 5800000 5700000 5650000 5619398 6100000 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 725535.00 712639 699335 689172 681299 647592 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 12.40 8.5 8.5 8.5 408 8 percent [+]
Loan Growth 0.10 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.79 1.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3143075725.00 3155786222 3158596998 3157348564 3155440874 3137216654 BRL Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 3545.75 4800 5000 4500 4000 3000 USD Million [+]
Exports 16687.76 18500 19100 18700 15783 25000 USD Million [+]
Imports 13142.01 13700 14100 14200 12710 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -343.00 1100 1200 1500 -727 -500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.30 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -1.7 percent [+]
External Debt 683699.11 681243 674076 678301 676115 734000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 112.21 91 110 110 109 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 46.80 -92.07 -545 -860 -1122 1030 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 8239.60 6205 5784 5463 5142 7000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 174.90 179 180 180 179 178 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 67.29 65.03 63.82 62.62 61.39 55.5 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2550.00 2588 2585 2582 2579 2554 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 1.57 1.01 0.91 0.81 0.71 1.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6578.00 6600 6575 6550 6525 6200 Thousand [+]
Weapons Sales 109.00 80.7 78.98 77.27 75.55 83.09 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.49 70 72 72 62.55 75 percent [+]
Government Budget -8.90 -8.5 -9 -9 -4.31 -7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -30494.00 -41825 -35800 -31783 -28793 -110000 BRL Million [+]
Government Spending 98058.02 103576 101312 100075 99032 90157 BRL Million [+]
Government Revenues 121144.00 108070 108567 108510 108055 99490 BRL Million [+]
Military Expenditure 22839.30 22085 22052 22020 21987 21909 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 4837222.06 4889260 4949332 4985065 5004083 4906008 BRL Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 56.50 58.5 59 60 61 61 [+]
Services PMI 46.90 51 51.8 51.3 51 52.7 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.50 51 51.2 51.9 52 52.8 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.90 50.9 50.5 50.1 48.84 53.6 Index [+]
Industrial Production 5.30 3.7 2.8 4.1 2.6 2.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.14 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.60 1 1.1 2.5 1.53 1.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.70 78 78 78 78.71 79 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1437.43 15000 19000 28000 6865 21000 BRL Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 168875.00 167992 165948 164206 162636 176000 [+]
Car Production 249089.00 186000 191000 191000 232163 190000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 204.00 201 200 197 195 180 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.29 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.17 0.2 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 52.60 49 50.2 50.3 53.87 51 [+]
Internet Speed 6819.06 8549 9002 9593 9947 12169 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 26855780.00 25700196 25338992 24954191 24585854 22074778 IP [+]
Mining Production 2.20 -1.1 2.98 3.15 3.23 1.5 percent [+]
Steel Production 3045.00 3000 2951 2904 2860 2568 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.14 4.06 4.13 4.13 4.06 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 80.00 81 79 79 79 77 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 125.00 115 115 115 124 112 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 40 42 42 37 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 75 74 74 80 72 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.00 101 102 102 102 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.90 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1048827.44 1110000 1130000 1140000 1053816 1300000 BRL Million [+]
Consumer Credit 1626848.00 1622200 1621882 1620600 1619071 1604534 BRL Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2830245.00 3120000 2821679 2817328 2812019 3690000 BRL Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 59.47 59.07 59.53 60.16 60.81 55.43 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.24 1.2 1.13 1.08 1.03 1 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 129.40 129 129 128 127 116 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50 28 27.5 27.5 28 28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]